原油価格の急落が歓迎するようなものではない理由

A BARREL of oil could be bought for $47.36 in after-hours trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday December 1st. The price of oil is now at its lowest level in over three years and some $100 cheaper per barrel than at its peak in July. The latest drop came after members of OPEC, who had gathered for an emergency meeting in Cairo at the weekend, failed to agree to cut output quotas, despite tumbling demand. Many analysts expect the oil price to drop further.

ニューヨーク商品先物取引所における12月1日(月)の時間外取引において，原油1バレルは$47.36となった．原油価格は今やここ3年で最低のレベルにあり，今年7月のピークに比べ1バレルあたり約$100安くなっている．最近の下落の前，週末カイロでの緊急会議に参集したOPECのメンバーは，急激な需要の下落にもかかわらず，産油割当カットの合意に至らなかった．多くのアナリストは，原油価格はさらに下落するだろうと見ている．

Many will cheer the news. Governments that were struggling to deal with inflation earlier in the year are enjoying some relief. The world's poorest, who spend as much as three-quarters of their income on getting enough to eat, were especially vulnerable to rising energy costs that helped to push up the price of food. Food riots erupted from Kolkata to Cameroon. With oil prices falling, and governments now more concerned about deflation than rising prices, those setting monetary policy have had no hesitation in cutting interest rates dramatically.

大勢の人々はこのニュースを歓迎するだろう．今年始め，インフレへの対応に四苦八苦していた政府は，一息ついているところだ．収入の1/3を食べ物に費やす最貧困層の人々は，食料の価格を引き上げる要因であるエネルギーコストの上昇に対して特に脆弱である．食糧暴動はカルカッタからカメルーンまで勃発している．原油価格が下落し，また政府は今や上昇価格よりもデフレをより心配していることからも，金融政策を策定する人々にとって金利を大幅に引き下げることにためらいはなくなっている．

Why the plummeting price of oil may not be something to cheer | Down it goes | The Economist

いまや$42台まで落ち込んでいるようですが，さて原油が下がるとなぜ困るのか，下記のような理由が挙げられています．

• 世界経済の悪化の兆候
  • the rapid recent decline is a symptom of a sharply worsening world economy: demand is dropping as economic activity stagnates, or slows, everywhere.

• 環境問題への悪影響
  • The recent period of high prices curbed appetites for oil and other forms of energy that result in emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

• 新たな原油産出への投資の減速による将来における原油不足の恐れ
  • The long-term supply depends on continued investments in oil production, which is discouraged by low or volatile prices.

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The price of oil would ideally reflect not only its demand and supply but take into account the damage that its use inflicts on the environment. But when oil is cheap, the hard decisions about investing in alternatives, inventing more energy-efficient plants and machinery, or changing consumer behaviour, all of which would help the world can wean itself off oil, become that much easier to postpone.

原油価格は，理想的には，需給を反映するだけでなく，その使用が環境に与える悪影響も考慮に入れられるであろう．だが価格が安ければ，代替燃料への投資，より高効率なプラントや装置への投資，消費者行動の変化といった，原油依存からの脱却を助けるような厳しい決断が，その分先送りされやすくなるのである．